Brexit & Northern Ireland: It’s Complicated
Owen Wong, Online Assistant Editor
September 17, 2020
When the United Kingdom voted to leave the EU in 2016, the primary concerns on voter’s minds were immigration, political sovereignty, outsourced labour, and national economics. What many failed to recognize was the impact that Brexit would have on Northern Ireland and the potential ethnic conflict it could incite.
In 1921, Ireland was partitioned into two states: the independent Irish Free State that later simply became Ireland, and Northern Ireland, a devolved region that remained part of the United Kingdom. For 50 years, Unionists in Northern Ireland (those that wanted to remain part of the British union) used techniques of coercion, electoral engineering, and economic discrimination to prevent northern nationalists (the nearly exclusive Catholic population who wanted Irish reunification) from forming a united front in their goal to end partition. Between 1972 and 1998 violence erupted between northern unionists and nationalists, leading to the death of over 3500 citizens. The conflict, commonly known as “The Troubles” ended with the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. The agreement created a forum for the two Ireland’s to work together and allowed for citizens of Northern Ireland to choose to be legally recognized as Irish, British, or both.
Brexit, specifically the no-deal Brexit that occurred on January 31, 2020, threatens to undermine the Good Friday Agreement and reinvigorate tensions in the North. When the United Kingdom was a member of the EU, both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland were in the single European market, allowing for goods to flow freely between the two Irelands. Brexit and the UK’s decision to leave the European market has threatened to erect a border between the two Irelands, limiting the mobility of people, goods, and jeopardizing the peace.
In an attempt to prevent the conflict that might arise if a hard border were to be formed between the two Irelands, the EU has developed a plan to move the trade border between the Irish island and the mainland. This east-west border would mean that Northern Ireland would abide by the rules and regulations of the EU, and allow for free trade on the island, but goods flowing between Northern Ireland and Great Britain would be subject to tariffs and border checks. These tariff payments could be reclaimed if proof was provided that the goods from Britain were consumed within Northern Ireland and not the Republic.
The UK is in a transition period until the end of 2020, which has granted the UK time to negotiate a deal with the EU before they lose access to the European market. Following the end of the year timeline, the UK also has four months to develop a concrete plan with Northern Ireland. Understandably, citizens of Northern Ireland are concerned about the impact of a tariff border with Britain on their economy. To quell these anxieties, Britain has committed to free and unfettered trade between the two regions. Yet, this commitment contradicts the proposal formulated by the EU. The end of the transition period is near, and a plan that satisfies Brexit, free trade between the two Irelands, and an open market between Northern Ireland and Britain remains elusive.
While the UK tries to develop an acceptable policy vis-a-vis Northern Ireland, the Catholic and traditionally nationalist population is projected to exceed the unionist population for the first time. In February of this year, Sinn Fein - the former political wing of a notorious nationalist paramilitary - received the most first preference votes in Northern Ireland’s Single Transferable Vote (STV) electoral system. The STV uses a ranked ballot system where voters can order their preference in candidates. All first, second, and third votes are tallied. Candidates are then elected through a quota system which is designed to accomplish proportional representation. Because of the STV system Sinn Fein received the second-highest number of seats in parliament. The party is actively committed to Irish reunification and considers Brexit an opportunity to achieve this goal.
During the 2016 Brexit referendum, 56% of Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU. Scotland, a country in the UK that has strong ties with Northern Ireland voted by 62% to stay in the EU. The possibility that Scotland will seek independence in an attempt to achieve EU membership has led many unionists, whose ties with the UK are primarily Scottish, to question what remains for them in the UK.
How will Brexit impact Northern Ireland? - It’s complicated. The absence of a trade policy that satisfies Brexit, the EU, and Great Britain has led to uncertainty about the Irish border. Northern nationalists have unprecedented support in the devolved legislature and are committed to reunification. Loyalty to the crown and Irish reunification were the seeds that grew into the Troubles. Yet, many citizens in the North no longer identify with the traditional unionist and nationalist groups that dominated the 20th century. A new European identity is emerging on the island, an identity that can be reclaimed through Irish reunification. While the future of Brexit and its impact on Northern Ireland is unknown, one thing is certain - it's complicated.